據(jù)外媒報(bào)道，近期《食品添加劑與污染物》雜志刊登一篇關(guān)于氣候變化對(duì)食品生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)中自然毒素形成影響的文章。文章指出食品和飼料安全將會(huì)受氣候變化的影響，包括初級(jí)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和海產(chǎn)品中的天然毒素，但迄今為止尚缺乏定量評(píng)估。
本研究旨在評(píng)估氣候變化對(duì)歐洲大陸西北部種植的谷物中霉菌毒素污染、赤潮爆發(fā)頻率、北部海岸貝類中海洋生物毒素污染的影響。研究重點(diǎn)關(guān)注小麥中脫氧雪腐鐮刀菌烯醇污染、鰭藻屬藻類富集、腹瀉性貝類毒素污染之間的潛在關(guān)系。本研究充分參考了現(xiàn)有的資料和模型，采用的模型有：全球氣候模型、區(qū)域性氣候模型、農(nóng)作物氣候?qū)W模型、霉菌毒素預(yù)測(cè)模型、流體動(dòng)力學(xué)模型和生態(tài)模型，模型通過(guò)將相關(guān)模型結(jié)論輸入另一模型的方式而相互結(jié)合。
此外，通過(guò)對(duì)研究領(lǐng)域的國(guó)家數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)數(shù)據(jù)分析后，獲得了鰭藻細(xì)胞數(shù)量、腹瀉性貝類毒素貝類和農(nóng)作物耕作頻率間關(guān)聯(lián)的信息。本論文內(nèi)容包括研究摘要、結(jié)論和建議。本文以2031年至2050年氣候變化預(yù)測(cè)為分析起點(diǎn)，研究這20年的氣候變化信息。
結(jié)果顯示，通常情況下氣候變化促使小麥提前開(kāi)花和收割，小麥污染脫氧雪腐鐮刀菌烯醇的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提高，而鞭毛屬藻類富集的爆發(fā)頻率也隨之增加。假設(shè)鰭藻屬藻類與鞭毛屬藻類的表現(xiàn)相似，則將來(lái)爆發(fā)鰭藻屬藻類藻華的頻率也會(huì)增加，但對(duì)含腹瀉性貝類毒素貝類的污染影響則不確定。氣候變化對(duì)毒素污染存在間接影響，例如，隨著氣候變化，北歐小麥和玉米的收獲頻率預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)增加，同時(shí)谷物污染脫氧雪腐鐮刀菌烯醇的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提高。
風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理人員應(yīng)該考慮氣候變化對(duì)食品安全危害造成的整體影響，而非僅限于中值或平均值。此外，該研究建議以后應(yīng)該密切監(jiān)控霉菌毒素和海洋生物毒素的含量，特別是利于微生物產(chǎn)生毒素的氣候變化。而且，在數(shù)據(jù)收集、數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)實(shí)用性和接入性方面需持續(xù)重點(diǎn)關(guān)注。歐洲迫切需要開(kāi)展術(shù)語(yǔ)的統(tǒng)一和數(shù)據(jù)采集工作。
部分原文報(bào)道如下：
Climate change is expected to affect food and feed safety, including the occurrence of natural toxins in primary crop and seafood production; however, to date, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change effects on mycotoxin contamination of cereal grains cultivated in the terrestrial area of north west Europe, and on the frequency of harmful algal blooms and contamination of shellfish with marine biotoxins in the North Sea coastal zone. The study focused on contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol, and on abundance of Dinophysis spp. and the possible relationship with diarrhetic shellfish toxins.
The study used currently available data and models. Global and regional climate models were combined with models of crop phenology, mycotoxin prediction models, hydrodynamic models and ecological models, with the output of one model being used as input for the other. In addition, statistical data analyses using existing national datasets from the study area were performed to obtain information on the relationships between Dinophysis spp. cell counts and contamination of shellfish with diarrhetic shellfish toxins as well as on frequency of cereal cropping. In this paper, a summary of the study is presented, and overall conclusions and recommendations are given.
原文鏈接：<http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19440049.2012.714080>
日期：2012-11-16
